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New Yorkers will find out who will be their new city leader this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of cautious, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd